The seeding of the groups at this summer's World Cup will generally keep the biggest of the big guns apart once they're whittled down to sixteen. Brazil and Portugal aside (are we calling Ivory Coast a big gun yet?), this year is no different. France, Argentina, England, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain all look to have a relatively straightforward route into the knockout stages. Germany could have a tougher time, though they are equally as capable of cruising through with maximum points.The last World Cup bore this statistic out with seven of the eight seeded teams finishing top of their group. Only France failed to do so by finishing a surprise second to Switzerland. They then went on to the final, losing to Italy.
This means that there should be some pretty decent scraps for second place for a number of teams who might not have realistically been hoping to make it out of their group before the draw was made. Big games that do not necessarily involve the big names.
Mexico and Uruguay (Group A), both squeezing through qualification, should be an interesting final group game to see who will be carried on France’s coattails. This is barring a spirited home showing from a South Africa side many have written off perhaps a little too soon. They have managed to avoid selecting Benni ’Big Mac’ McCarthy in their squad but the number of domestic based players gives an idea of the lack of quality they possess.
The trio of South Korea, Greece and Nigeria may not sound the most mouth-watering of prospects, though all are capable of qualifying from Group B. All are hardworking and functional but lack any creative spark so it may come down to which is the most dogged. Nigeria v South Korea in the final game could be very tense.
USA would hope to edge out Slovenia and Algeria in Group C, though the latter two will be far from walkovers. The USA will be buoyed should they get anything from the opening match against England and if Slovenia v Algeria produces a winner, they will also fancy their chances of progressing.
Anything could happen in Group D, though the loss of Chelsea’s Michael Essien for Ghana is a hammer blow for the Africans. Much will depend on the form and goals of Tim Cahill for Australia and Harry Kewell has been impersonating a professional footballer over the past couple of seasons at Galatasaray. Serbia should be strong enough to partner a young German side into the last sixteen.
There doesn’t seem much to choose between Cameroon, Denmark and Japan in Group E either. Samuel Eto’o’s goals could prove vital for the erratic Cameroonians, but Denmark are stronger throughout. Japan are no bad side but lack the flair and ability of their 2002 team. Denmark have a tough opening fixture against the Netherlands in which a point would put them well on their way.
Paraguay (Group F) and Chile (Group H) made very good showings in the CONMEBOL South American qualification league, both finishing just one point off top-placed Brazil - though we all know that little can be read into a South American qualifying campaign (see Colombia in 94). In their paths should be Slovakia and Switzerland, respectively. Solid but unspectacular teams – the Swiss finishing at the summit of what must go down as the most average qualifying group ever seen and Slovakia doing well to top a group featuring Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia. Both matches are in the middle of the group campaign and each management team will know a win would give their qualification chances a huge boost.
The obligatorily ‘Group of Death’ is probably Group G (with Group D running it close) and Ivory Coast must be cursing their luck given their equally difficult draw in 2006. But if they can do enough in their opening two matches to ensure they still have a chance of qualifying with a win in their final group game against North Korea, they could sneak through especially in the not unlikely event that Brazil and Portugal draw in their final game.
Please bear in mind this is all based on the massive assumption that the teams mentioned in the opening paragraph all waltz through to the second stage when we all really want France, Portugal and Argentina to repeat their performances of eight years ago.
Matt Morrison
paraguay's qualification was down mainly to an excellent start to the campaign, whereas the Chilean route was on the back of an almost faultless end to it. It'll be interesting to follow these two teams to see whether a) they follow a pattern similar to their qualification (in which case you could say paraguay have a stronger chance than chile) or b) they continue their current CONEMBOL form.
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